| World population stabilization unlikely this century P Gerland, AE Raftery, H Ševčíková, N Li, D Gu, T Spoorenberg, L Alkema, ... Science 346 (6206), 234-237, 2014 | 1183 | 2014 |
| Global, regional, and national levels and trends in under-5 mortality between 1990 and 2015, with scenario-based projections to 2030: a systematic analysis by the UN Inter … D You, L Hug, S Ejdemyr, P Idele, D Hogan, C Mathers, P Gerland, ... The Lancet 386 (10010), 2275-2286, 2015 | 522 | 2015 |
| Bayesian probabilistic population projections for all countries AE Raftery, N Li, H Ševčíková, P Gerland, GK Heilig Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 109 (35), 13915-13921, 2012 | 260 | 2012 |
| Probabilistic projections of the total fertility rate for all countries L Alkema, AE Raftery, P Gerland, SJ Clark, F Pelletier, T Buettner, ... Demography 48 (3), 815-839, 2011 | 238 | 2011 |
| Bayesian probabilistic projections of life expectancy for all countries AE Raftery, JL Chunn, P Gerland, H Ševčíková Demography 50 (3), 777-801, 2013 | 157 | 2013 |
| Bayesian population projections for the United Nations AE Raftery, L Alkema, P Gerland Statistical science: a review journal of the Institute of Mathematical …, 2014 | 112 | 2014 |
| Modelling HIV epidemics in the antiretroviral era: the UNAIDS Estimation and Projection package 2009 T Brown, L Bao, AE Raftery, JA Salomon, RF Baggaley, J Stover, ... Sexually transmitted infections 86 (Suppl 2), ii3-ii10, 2010 | 99 | 2010 |
| Global trends in AIDS mortality J Bongaarts Population and Development Review, 21-45, 1996 | 97 | 1996 |
| Extending the Lee-Carter method to model the rotation of age patterns of mortality decline for long-term projections N Li, R Lee, P Gerland Demography 50 (6), 2037-2051, 2013 | 83 | 2013 |
| Changes in cause-specific neonatal and 1–59-month child mortality in India from 2000 to 2015: a nationally representative survey SA Fadel, R Rasaily, S Awasthi, R Begum, RE Black, H Gelband, ... The Lancet 390 (10106), 1972-1980, 2017 | 71 | 2017 |
| Joint probabilistic projection of female and male life expectancy AE Raftery, N Lalic, P Gerland Demographic research 30, 795, 2014 | 64 | 2014 |
| United Nations Inter-agency Group for Child Mortality Estimation (UN IGME). Global, regional, and national levels and trends in under-5 mortality between 1990 and 2015, with … D You, L Hug, S Ejdemyr, P Idele, D Hogan, C Mathers, P Gerland, ... Lancet 386 (10010), 2275-2286, 2015 | 61 | 2015 |
| Child mortality estimation: a global overview of infant and child mortality age patterns in light of new empirical data M Guillot, P Gerland, F Pelletier, A Saabneh PLoS Med 9 (8), e1001299, 2012 | 55 | 2012 |
| Systematic assessment of the sex ratio at birth for all countries and estimation of national imbalances and regional reference levels F Chao, P Gerland, AR Cook, L Alkema Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 116 (19), 9303-9311, 2019 | 53 | 2019 |
| Adult mortality in Africa G Reniers, B Masquelier, P Gerland International handbook of adult mortality, 151-170, 2011 | 51 | 2011 |
| Age-specific mortality and fertility rates for probabilistic population projections H Ševčíková, N Li, V Kantorová, P Gerland, AE Raftery Dynamic demographic analysis, 285-310, 2016 | 48 | 2016 |
| Age-specific and sex-specific adult mortality risk in India in 2014: analysis of 0· 27 million nationally surveyed deaths and demographic estimates from 597 districts U Ram, P Jha, P Gerland, RJ Hum, P Rodriguez, W Suraweera, K Kumar, ... The Lancet Global Health 3 (12), e767-e775, 2015 | 45 | 2015 |
| Reconstructing past populations with uncertainty from fragmentary data MC Wheldon, AE Raftery, SJ Clark, P Gerland Journal of the American Statistical Association 108 (501), 96-110, 2013 | 41 | 2013 |
| Estimating trends in the total fertility rate with uncertainty using imperfect data: Examples from West Africa L Alkema, AE Raftery, P Gerland, SJ Clark, F Pelletier Demographic research 26 (15), 2012 | 37 | 2012 |
| Patterns of fertility decline and the impact of alternative scenarios of future fertility change in sub-Saharan Africa P Gerland, A Biddlecom, V Kantorová Population and Development Review 43, 21-38, 2017 | 32 | 2017 |
Adrian E. RafteryProfessor of Statistics and Sociology, University of WashingtonVerified email at uw.edu
